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SoftRisk
software failure actuary
goldrush CEP live
Collective risk model · ruin theory · IBNR · credibility
Derailment is ruin. We price it like one.
Every project carries a technical-debt reserve: defect frequency × severity is the aggregate loss, engineering capacity is the premium inflow, and the probability the project derails is a classical ruin calculation — not a vibe. Signals stream through goldrush CEP queries and land in the rating as underwriting debits.
Rating
A
ψ(u) = ~0.0%
Underwriting inputs
Credibility Z1.0
Org λ (Σ rate × exposure)0.0/sprint
E[S] load0.0h
Safety loading c − λμ544.0h
Underwriting decision
u + c·t − S(t)
Low risk — underwrite the portfolio. (17 active, 0 runoff)
On-chain anchor — tamper-proof rating
sha256(rating_doc) → Soroban
Commit this underwriting decision to the Commitment oracle — band, ψ, debits, timestamp. Third parties verify keylessly.
Ruin ψ(u)
~0.0%
VaR 95%
0.0h
TVaR 95%
0.0h
Signal debits
0
Surplus path U(t) — Monte Carlo (one draw)
ruin when ≤ 0
Signal debits (goldrush CEP)
Z3N/aimiami-org ×0.0
0.0
Z3N/amqp-ai ×0.0
0.0
Z3N/contacting-ai ×0.0
0.0
Z3N/deepgalaxy-ai ×0.0
0.0
Z3N/deepmesh-ai-cybersvelte ×0.0
0.0
Z3N/farmersmarket-ai-cybersvelte ×0.0
0.0
Z3N/goldchain-ai ×0.0
0.0
Z3N/grantbot-com ×0.0
0.0
Z3N/granted-ai-cybersvelte ×0.0
0.0
Z3N/kungfu-io ×0.0
0.0
Z3N/photosynthes-is ×0.0
0.0
Z3N/polyhedge-org ×0.0
0.0
Z3N/stockmarkets-ai ×0.0
0.0
Z3N/stockmarkets-ai-cybersvelte ×0.0
0.0
Z3N/uncanny-ai ×0.0
0.0
Z3N/volition-ai ×0.0
0.0
Z3N/z3n-ai ×0.0
0.0
Engineering event stream
GreEx.make → :glc.handle
Fire real events into the compiled goldrush queries. Watch the counters increment and the debits (and the band) move on the next 3-second tick.
or inject individual events
no events yet — fire one above
IBNR — bugs shipped, not yet found
chain ladder
Reported
18
Ultimate
19.4
IBNR (latent)
1.4
or pull real issues:
Rows are defect cohorts by sprint; the last diagonal is what you've seen so far. The ladder projects the unobserved tail — the bugs already in production that nobody has hit yet.
Underwritten portfolio — watched repos
A
aimiami-org
ψ ~0.0%
0 commits
0 hotspots
0 reverts
0 drift
0 ci runs
0 ci blowouts
A
amqp-ai
ψ ~0.0%
0 commits
0 hotspots
0 reverts
0 drift
0 ci runs
0 ci blowouts
A
contacting-ai
ψ ~0.0%
0 commits
0 hotspots
0 reverts
0 drift
0 ci runs
0 ci blowouts
A
deepgalaxy-ai
ψ ~0.0%
0 commits
0 hotspots
0 reverts
0 drift
0 ci runs
0 ci blowouts
A
deepmesh-ai-cybersvelte
ψ ~0.0%
0 commits
0 hotspots
0 reverts
0 drift
0 ci runs
0 ci blowouts
A
farmersmarket-ai-cybersvelte
ψ ~0.0%
0 commits
0 hotspots
0 reverts
0 drift
0 ci runs
0 ci blowouts
A
goldchain-ai
ψ ~0.0%
0 commits
0 hotspots
0 reverts
0 drift
0 ci runs
0 ci blowouts
A
grantbot-com
ψ ~0.0%
0 commits
0 hotspots
0 reverts
0 drift
0 ci runs
0 ci blowouts
A
granted-ai-cybersvelte
ψ ~0.0%
0 commits
0 hotspots
0 reverts
0 drift
0 ci runs
0 ci blowouts
A
kungfu-io
ψ ~0.0%
0 commits
0 hotspots
0 reverts
0 drift
0 ci runs
0 ci blowouts
A
photosynthes-is
ψ ~0.0%
0 commits
0 hotspots
0 reverts
0 drift
0 ci runs
0 ci blowouts
A
polyhedge-org
ψ ~0.0%
0 commits
0 hotspots
0 reverts
0 drift
0 ci runs
0 ci blowouts
A
stockmarkets-ai
ψ ~0.0%
0 commits
0 hotspots
0 reverts
0 drift
0 ci runs
0 ci blowouts
A
stockmarkets-ai-cybersvelte
ψ ~0.0%
0 commits
0 hotspots
0 reverts
0 drift
0 ci runs
0 ci blowouts
A
uncanny-ai
ψ ~0.0%
0 commits
0 hotspots
0 reverts
0 drift
0 ci runs
0 ci blowouts
A
volition-ai
ψ ~0.0%
0 commits
0 hotspots
0 reverts
0 drift
0 ci runs
0 ci blowouts
A
z3n-ai
ψ ~0.0%
0 commits
0 hotspots
0 reverts
0 drift
0 ci runs
0 ci blowouts
The actuarial dictionary
Frequency × severity
Defect discovery rate λ times fix-cost E[X]. E[S] per sprint is the expected derailment load.
Ruin theory
Surplus U(t) = u + ct − S(t). Derailment = ruin. ψ(u) comes from Lundberg, not gut feel.
IBNR
Incurred-but-not-reported: latent shipped bugs. Chain-ladder triangles price the invisible backlog.
Credibility
Bühlmann Z = n/(n+k): new repos lean on industry priors; mature repos earn their own rate.
Gompertz hazard
Tech debt compounds like mortality: μ(x) = A·e^(Bx). P(survive N sprints) is a life-table read.
Goldrush CEP
Compiled O(1) queries over commit/CI/alert events. Signals land as underwriting debits, live.
SoftRisk · collective risk model over goldrush CEP · Actuary.Finance · ruin is a number, not a mood